气候变化对许多地区维持和提高作物生产的努力提出了挑战。在这篇综述中，我们研究了全球重要的主粮谷物作物（小麦、玉米、小米、高粱和水稻）对气温升高、二氧化碳升高和可用水量变化的产量反应。CO 2升高可以对C3作物（小麦和水稻）的产量产生补偿效应，但可以被高温和干旱所抵消。相比之下，在干旱胁迫下，升高的CO 2仅有益于C4 植物（玉米、小米和高粱）。在最严重的气候变化情景下，如果不采取适应措施，模拟作物产量损失范围为 7% 至 23%。高纬度地区的不利影响可能会被 CO 2施肥和适应方案抵消或逆转，但低纬度地区（其中 C4 作物是主要作物）从 CO 2施肥中受益较少。灌溉和养分管理可能是最有效的适应方案（与基线相比，高纬度地区的小麦产量可提高 40%），但需要大量投资，并且可能无法普遍适用，例如在水资源有限的情况下。建立多因素实验（包括多用途品种小组）、开发生物胁迫建模程序、合并基于过程和数据驱动的模型以及使用综合影响评估，对于更好地捕获和评估产量对气候变化的响应至关重要。

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Climate change challenges efforts to maintain and improve crop production in many regions. In this Review, we examine yield responses to warmer temperatures, elevated carbon dioxide and changes in water availability for globally important staple cereal crops (wheat, maize, millet, sorghum and rice). Elevated CO2 can have a compensatory effect on crop yield for C3 crops (wheat and rice), but it can be offset by heat and drought. In contrast, elevated CO2 only benefits C4 plants (maize, millet and sorghum) under drought stress. Under the most severe climate change scenario and without adaptation, simulated crop yield losses range from 7% to 23%. The adverse effects in higher latitudes could potentially be offset or reversed by CO2 fertilization and adaptation options, but lower latitudes, where C4 crops are the primary crops, benefit less from CO2 fertilization. Irrigation and nutrient management are likely to be the most effective adaptation options (up to 40% in wheat yield for higher latitudes compared with baseline) but require substantial investments and might not be universally applicable, for example where there are water resource constraints. Establishing multifactor experiments (including multipurpose cultivar panels), developing biotic stress modelling routines, merging process-based and data-driven models, and using integrated impact assessments, are all essential to better capture and assess yield responses to climate change.