来源：雪球App，作者： forcode，（https://xueqiu.com/3167081651/242996521）

99岁的查理芒格，依然如此健康、头脑清晰、反应快速、表达清晰幽默，简直是个奇迹……

//Q9: ChatGPT asks, “Mr. Munger, you’ve spoken about the importance of avoiding mental biases in decision-making. In your experience, what’s the most challenging bias to overcome and how do you personally guard against it?”

Q9：ChatGPT 问，“先生。芒格，您谈到了在决策过程中避免心理偏见的重要性。根据您的经验，要克服的最具挑战性的偏见是什么？您个人是如何防范的？”

CM: If I had to name one factor that dominates human bad decisions, it would be what I call denial. If the truth is unpleasant enough, their mind plays tricks on them and they think it isn’t really happening. Of course, that causes enormous destruction of business where people go on throwing money into the way they used to do things, even though it isn’t going to work at all well in the way the world is now, having changed.CM：如果我必须说出一个主导人类错误决定的因素，我称之为否认。如果真相足够令人不愉快，他们的思想就会欺骗他们，他们认为这并没有真正发生。当然，这对企业造成了巨大的破坏，人们继续把钱投入到他们过去做事的方式中，即使它在世界现在的方式上根本不会很好地工作，已经改变了。

If you want an example of how denial is affecting things, take the world of investment management. How many managers are going to beat the indexes, all costs considered? I would say maybe 5% can consistently beat the averages. Everybody else is living in a state of extreme denial. They’re used to charging big fees for stuff that isn’t doing their clients any good. It’s a deep moral depravity if some widow comes to you with $500,000 and you charge her one point a year when you could put her in the indexes — but you need the one point. So people just charge some widow a considerable fee for worthless advice. The whole profession is full of that kind of denial. It’s everywhere.如果你想要一个否认是如何影响事物的例子，那就以投资管理领域为例。考虑到所有成本，有多少经理人会跑赢指数？我想说也许 5% 可以持续超过平均水平。其他人都生活在极端否认的状态中。他们习惯于为对客户没有任何好处的事情收取高额费用。如果某个寡妇带着 500,000 美元来找你，而当你可以将她列入指数时，你每年向她收取一分，这是一种严重的道德败坏——但你需要这一分。因此，人们只是向一些寡妇收取可观的费用，以获得毫无价值的建议。整个职业都充满了那种否定。它无处不在。

I always quote Demosthenes. It was a long time ago, Demosthenes. That was more than 2,000 years ago. He said, “What people wish is what they believe.”我总是引用德摩斯梯尼的话。那是很久以前的事了，德摩斯梯尼。那是两千多年前的事了。他说：“人们所希望的就是他们所相信的。”

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I would say the agency costs of money management, there are just so many billions, it’s unaccountable. And nobody can face it. You want to keep your kids in school, you need the fees. You need the brokerage commissions. You need this or that, so you do what’s good for you and bad for them.我想说资金管理的代理成本，有几十亿，这是无法计算的。没有人能面对它。你想让你的孩子继续上学，你需要学费。你需要经纪佣金。你需要这个或那个，所以你会做对你有利而对他们不利的事情。

I don’t think Berkshire does that and I don’t think Guerin and I did it at the Daily Journal. Guerin and I never took a dime in salary or directors fees or anything. If I have business and talk on my phone or use my car, I don’t charge it to the Daily Journal. That’s unheard of. It shouldn’t be unheard of and it goes on in Berkshire and it goes on in the Daily Journal.我不认为伯克希尔会那样做，我也不认为 Guerin 和我在 Daily Journal 那样做过。 Guerin 和我从来没有拿过一分钱的薪水或董事费或任何东西。如果我有事要打电话或用车，我不会向 Daily Journal 收费。这是闻所未闻的。这不应该是闻所未闻的，它在伯克希尔发生，在每日日报上发生。

We have an incentive plan now in this Journal Technologies and it has a million dollars worth of Daily Journal stock. That did not come from the company issuing those shares, I gave those shares to the company to use in compensating the employees. I learned that trick, so to speak, from the guy at BYD我们现在在 Journal Technologies 有一个激励计划，它拥有价值一百万美元的 Daily Journal 股票。那不是公司发行那些股票的，我把那些股票给了公司用来补偿员工。可以说，我从比亚迪的那个人那里学到了这个技巧

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BYD, at one time in its history, the founder/chairman didn’t use the company’s stock to reward the executives, he used his own stock. It was a big reward, too. Well, last year, what happened? BYD, last year, made more than $2 billion after taxes in the auto business in China. Who in the hell makes $2 billion as a brand new entrant in the auto business, for all practical purposes? It’s incredible what’s happened. So there is some of this old-fashioned capitalist virtue left in the Daily Journal and there’s some left in Berkshire Hathaway and there’s some left in BYD. But, most places, everybody is trying to take what they need and just rationalizing whether it’s deserved or not.比亚迪，在其历史上的某个时期，创始人/董事长没有用公司的股票来奖励高管，他用的是自己的股票。这也是一个很大的奖励。那么，去年，发生了什么事？去年，比亚迪在中国的汽车业务税后收入超过 20 亿美元。出于所有实际目的，到底谁能作为汽车行业的全新进入者赚到 20 亿美元？发生的事情令人难以置信。因此，《每日日报》中保留了一些这种老式的资本主义美德，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司中也保留了一些，比亚迪中也保留了一些。但是，在大多数地方，每个人都在努力获取他们需要的东西，并合理化它是否值得。

Q10: Why do you prefer an investment in BYD to Tesla?Q10：为什么你更喜欢投资比亚迪而不是特斯拉？

CM: That’s easy. Tesla, last year, reduced its prices in China twice and BYD increased its prices. We’re direct competitors. BYD is so much ahead of Tesla in China, it’s almost ridiculous. If you look at BYD, which most people have never heard of, if you count all of the manufacturing space they have in China to make cars, it would amount to a big percentage of all the land in Manhattan Island. And nobody ever heard of them a few years ago.厘米：这很容易。去年，特斯拉在中国两次降价，比亚迪涨价。我们是直接的竞争对手。比亚迪在中国远远领先于特斯拉，这几乎是荒谬的。如果你看看大多数人从未听说过的比亚迪，如果你算上他们在中国拥有的所有制造空间来制造汽车，那将占曼哈顿岛所有土地的很大一部分。几年前没有人听说过它们。

Q11: Did Berkshire’s sale of some BYD and Taiwan Semi sharesQ11：伯克希尔是否出售了部分比亚迪和台积电的股份？

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CM: Well, BYD is selling for about 50x earnings. That is a very high price. On the other hand, they’re likely to increase their auto sales by another 50% this year. We sold part of ours, by the way, about a year ago at a much higher price than it’s selling for now. We’re not a mini-Berkshire. We’re not going to have a big correlation between us and what Berkshire does.CM：嗯，比亚迪的售价约为 50 倍。这是一个非常高的价格。另一方面，他们今年的汽车销量可能会再增加 50%。顺便说一句，大约一年前，我们以比现在高得多的价格出售了我们的一部分。我们不是迷你伯克希尔。我们与伯克希尔所做的事情之间不会有太大的关联。

You can understand why some people would sell BYD stock at 50x earnings. At the current price of BYD stock, little BYD is worth more than the entire Mercedes corporation’s market capitalization. It’s not a cheap stock. On the other hand, it’s a very remarkable company.你可以理解为什么有些人会以 50 倍的市盈率卖出比亚迪股票。以比亚迪目前的股价计算，比亚迪的市值比整个梅赛德斯公司的市值都高。这不是一只便宜的股票。另一方面，这是一家非常了不起的公司。

And, by the way, I want to tell people the great contribution I made to the success of BYD. We got into it through Li Lu而且，顺便说一句，我想告诉人们我为比亚迪的成功做出的巨大贡献。我们是通过李璐认识的

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Q12: According to company filings, it appears that Alibaba shares were purchased with leverage and, when the stock price fell last year, you were forced to sellQ12：根据公司备案，阿里巴巴股票是杠杆购买的，去年股价下跌时，你被迫卖出

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CM: Yes, it’s true. I operated with no leverage for long stretches of my old age — Warren is the same way — and recently I did use a little bit of leverage here and in another place because the opportunities were so ridiculously good that I thought it was desirable to do that. You’re right, it’s unusual for us, but we did find a few things.厘米：是的，这是真的。在我晚年的很长一段时间里，我都没有利用杠杆——沃伦也是这样——最近我确实在这里和另一个地方使用了一点杠杆，因为机会非常好，我认为这样做是可取的.你是对的，这对我们来说很不寻常，但我们确实发现了一些东西。

By the way, if you go back early in my career, I used some leverage. I sometimes ask myself a mental question. I say, “What is the appropriate percentage of your net worth you should put in a stock if you think it’s an absolute cinch?” If you’re the kind of fellow who’s right when you think something is a cinch, the answer is 100%. Or maybe 150%. But nobody teaches people to think that way in finance. If the opportunity is great enough, the logical answer is 100%. Or maybe 200%.顺便说一句，如果你回到我职业生涯的早期，我使用了一些杠杆。我有时会问自己一个心理问题。我说，“如果你认为这只股票绝对不成问题，你应该将你净资产的适当百分比投入多少？”如果你是那种当你认为某事是小菜一碟时是对的人，那么答案是 100%。或者可能是 150%。但没有人教人们在金融领域以这种方式思考。如果机会足够大，合乎逻辑的答案是 100%。或者可能是 200%。