Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show

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Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show

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Several policymakers questioned whether to hold rates steady as they watched to see how the crisis unfolded. However, they relented and agreed to vote for another rate hike "because of elevated inflation, the strength of the recent economic data, and their commitment to bring inflation down to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal."

In fact, the minutes noted that some members were leaning toward a half-point rate rise prior to the banking problems. Officials said inflation is "much too high" though they stressed that incoming data and the impact of the hikes will have to be considered when formulating policy ahead.

"Several participants emphasized the need to retain flexibility and optionality in determining the appropriate stance of monetary policy given the highly uncertain economic outlook," the minutes said.

Inflation data has been generally cooperative with the Fed's aims.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, which is the inflation gauge policymakers watch the most, increased just 0.3% in February and was up 4.6% on an annual basis. The monthly gain was less than expected.

Earlier Wednesday, the consumer price index showed a rise of just 0.1% in March and decelerated to a 5% annual pace, the latter figure down a full percentage point from February.

However, that headline CPI reading was held back mostly by tame food and energy prices, and a boost in shelter costs drove core inflation higher by 0.4% for the month and 5.6% from a year ago, slightly above where it was in February. The Fed expects housing inflation to slow through the year.

There was some bad news on the inflation front: A monthly survey from the New York Fed showed that inflation expectations over the next year increased half a percentage point to 4.75% in March.

Markets as of Wednesday afternoon were assigning about a 72% chance of one more quarter percentage point rate hike in May before a policy pivot where the Fed cuts before the end of the year, according to CME Group data.

Though the FOMC approved an increase in March, it did alter language in the post-meeting statement. Where previous statements referred to the need for "ongoing increases," the committee changed the phrasing to indicate that more hikes "may be appropriate."



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