RBA interest rates: US Federal Reserve decision locks in another Australian rise, economists say

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RBA interest rates: US Federal Reserve decision locks in another Australian rise, economists say

#RBA interest rates: US Federal Reserve decision locks in another Australian rise, economists say| 来源: 网络整理| 查看: 265

BIS Oxford Economics head of macroeconomic forecasting Sean Langcake said the Fed’s decision made another 0.25 percentage point rate rise from the RBA all the more likely.

“We have now seen the central banks closest to the financial market ructions stick to their expected path and raise rates due to inflation concerns,” he told The Australian Financial Review.

“Central banks can walk and chew gum – they have other tools to deal with liquidity shortages, but reining in inflation still remains the primary goal.”

Mr Langcake said inflation, which is running at 7.8 per cent, remained too high.

“If the ECB and Fed have decided their markets can weather a rate hike, it would be very odd for the RBA to reach a different conclusion.

“Especially after the assurances they gave earlier this week on the strength of Australian banks.”

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After lifting for the 10th straight time on March 7, RBA governor Philip Lowe revealed the next day at The Australian Financial Review Business Summit that he had an “open mind” about the April board meeting, despite saying further tightening of monetary policy was needed.

Dr Lowe said data on employment, inflation, retail trade and business conditions would be pivotal for the rates decision next month.

Two of the four data points have since been released and were stronger than expected, with the unemployment rate falling back to a near-50-year low of 3.5 per cent in February and surveyed business conditions remaining close to historic highs.

Betashares chief economist David Bassanese said the Fed’s decision to raise rates suggested concerns about the health of the global banking system should not stop the RBA from raising rates next month.

“Instead, the RBA will base its decision on the run of local economic data – which so far at least has remained on the firm side, especially the 60k bounce back in employment during February,” he said.

“My base case remains the RBA will raise rates once more in April and then signal a pause. This depends on a still reasonably firm retail sales and monthly CPI report next Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.”



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