原文标题：

Chasing the American dream

Is it cheaper to rent or buy property?

We crunch the house-price data across every American county—and make a surprising finding

追逐美国梦

租房便宜还是买房便宜？

我们分析了美国各县的房价数据，得出了一个惊人的结论

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FOR YEARS new homebuyers in America have enjoyed lower housing costs than renters.

多年来，美国新购房者的住房成本一直低于租房者。

Between 2011 and 2020 the monthly mortgage payment on a typical home was 12% lower than the rental for a similar property (assuming a deposit of 13%, the current national average).

2011-2020年间，普通住宅的月供比同类房产的租金低 12%（假设首付为13%，符合当前全国平均水平）

A steady rise in home values, worth roughly 7% a year over the past decade, also ensured that buyers built equity in their homes.

过去十年间，房屋价值稳步上升，每年约上升 7%，这也确保了购房者能够积累房屋资产。

But, as our maps below show, today the choice between buying and renting looks different.

但如下地图所示，如今购房和租房的选择有所不同。

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Blame high house prices and soaring mortgage rates.

这要归咎于高房价和飙升的房贷利率。

Since 2020 nominal house prices have climbed by roughly 40%, while the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose from 3.1% to 7.3%.

自 2020 年以来，名义房价上涨了约 40%，而 30 年期固定利率抵押贷款平均利率从 3.1% 上涨至 7.3%。

Nominal mortgage payments have more than doubled since 2020; rents have risen by only about 20%.

自 2020 年以来，名义按揭贷款增加了一倍多；而租金只上涨了20%左右。

By our calculations, for 89% of Americans renting a two-bedroom place is now cheaper than buying a comparable property. Three years ago the figure was 16%.

根据我们的计算，对 89% 的美国人来说，租住两居室比购买同类房产更便宜。三年前这个数字是16%。

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Our calculations do not cover long-term potential costs and benefits, such as outlays on maintenance, the asset value of a home once a mortgage has been paid off, or the opportunity cost of investing in a deposit for a house rather than, say, the stockmarket.

我们的计算不包括长期潜在成本和收益，例如维护费用、还清抵押贷款后房屋的资产价值，或者将存款投资于房产而不是股票市场的机会成本。

But they do show how the relative costs of buying and renting have been upended in much of America.

但这些数据的确表明，美国大部分地区买房和租房的相对成本已经发生了颠倒。

To restore the ownership advantage that prevailed in the 2010s would require dramatic shifts in market conditions: house prices would have to tumble by one-third, average mortgage rates would have to fall to 3.2% or rental costs rise by at least 50%.

想要恢复2010年代占主导地位的房屋所有权优势，就需要市场条件发生戏剧性转变：房价必须下跌1/3，平均抵押贷款利率必须降至3.2%，或者租房成本至少上涨50%。

[Paragraph 4]None of these outcomes seems likely. 这些情况似乎都不可能出现。

House prices are not expected to crash: Goldman Sachs, a bank, forecasts that they will appreciate by 1.9% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. 预计房价不会暴跌：高盛银行预测 2024 年房价将上涨 1.9%，2025 年将上涨 2.8%。

Mortgages are expected to stay pricey, too. Goldman predicts that 30-year mortgage rates will dip, but not by much: to 7.1% by the end of 2024 and 6.6% by the end of 2025. 预计按揭贷款也将保持高位。高盛预测 30 年期抵押贷款利率将下降，但降幅不会太大：到 2024 年底将降至 7.1%，2025 年底将降至 6.6%。

Rents, meanwhile, seem unlikely to climb much, owing to a glut of newly built apartments and weak demand.与此同时，由于新建公寓过剩和需求疲软，租金似乎也不会大幅上涨。

[Paragraph 5]Even in the few markets where homes still look relatively cheap—such as Baltimore, Philadelphia and the Bronx, in New York City—most homeowners are reluctant to sell. 即使在少数房屋价格仍相对便宜的市场，如巴尔的摩、费城和纽约市的布朗克斯区，大多数房主也不愿出售房屋。

Nearly all have locked in mortgage rates that are much lower than those available to new borrowers. 几乎所有房主都锁定了比新借款人低得多的抵押贷款利率。

More than four in five existing mortgage-holders pay an interest rate under 5%, according to Torsten Slok of Apollo, a private-equity firm. 私募股权公司“阿波罗”的托斯滕·斯洛克说，4/5以上的现有房贷持有者支付的利率低于 5%。

So market conditions seem likely to put off millions of potential buyers and sellers of houses. 因此，市场状况似乎可能会让数百万潜在的房屋买家和卖家望而却步。

For many, renting will increasingly look like the affordable option. 对于许多人来说，租房将越来越成为一种负担得起的选择。

（恭喜读完，本篇英语词汇量461左右）原文出自：2023年12月2日《The Economist》United States版块精读笔记来源于：自由英语之路本文翻译整理: Irene本文编辑校对: Irene 仅供个人英语学习交流使用。

【补充资料】（来自于网络大蒙新知）

目前人们大多是“非必要不卖房”。美国眼下的高利率，意味着大部分业主手头的房贷利率都低于当前利率。波士顿市场成交量普遍是疫情前均值的2/3左右。美国西海岸城市西雅图情况类似。高利率对西雅图的房地产成交量影响很大。美国家庭基本上每10年会换房，但利率从2.8%升至现在的近8%，想换房的客户只能暂时不动了，想买房的人群很多也处于观望状态。

【重点句子】（3个）

By our calculations, for 89% of Americans renting a two-bedroom place is now cheaper than buying a comparable property. Three years ago the figure was 16%.

根据我们的计算，对 89% 的美国人来说，租住两居室比购买同类房产更便宜。三年前这个数字是16%。

Rents, meanwhile, seem unlikely to climb much, owing to a glut of newly built apartments and weak demand.

与此同时，由于新建公寓过剩和需求疲软，租金似乎也不会大幅上涨。

So market conditions seem likely to put off millions of potential buyers and sellers of houses.

因此，市场状况似乎可能会让数百万潜在的房屋买家和卖家望而却步。