A wider interface bead width is required for laser overlap welding by increasing the strength of the base material (BM) because the strength difference between the weld metal (WM) and the BM decreases. An insufficient interface bead width leads to interface fracturing rather than to the fracture of the BM and heat-affected zone (HAZ) during a tensile–shear test. An analytic model was developed to predict the tensile–shear fracture location without destructive testing. The model estimated the hardness of the WM and HAZ by using information such as the chemical composition and tensile strength of the BM provided by the steel makers. The strength of the weldments was calculated from the estimated hardness. The developed model considered overlap weldments with similar and dissimilar material combinations of various steel grades from 590 to 1500 MPa. The critical interface bead width for avoiding interface fracturing was suggested with an accuracy higher than 90%. Under all the experimental conditions, a bead width that was only 5% larger than the calculated value could prevent the fracture of the interface.