Keywords:
passenger transport /TIMES model /travel cost /travel choice behavior /carbon-reduction targets
Abstract: In order to study the passenger transport of the residents under the context of low-carbon city, this paper took the comprehensive energy optimization TIMES(The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System)model as analysis tools to build a passenger transport travel model. This model considered the impacts which included travel cost, travel choice behavior and carbon-reduction targets. At the same time, it took Beijing as an example, designed baseline scenario and three reference scenarios, and then analyzed and discussed different scenarios. The results showed that residents tend to meet demand of travel by car to a large degree when they can reduce travel time with very high investment cost. Under the circumstances of emissions of restricted CO2, the demand of car travel declines continuously, while the demand of travel by bus and rail rises steadily. Based on the above results, the paper puts forward four policy suggestions to promote the development of low-carbon passenger transport in Beijing:to regulate the structure of travel demand;to optimize the structure of transport travel;to adjust the structure of transport energy;to improve the structure of transport governance.
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