欧盟还有得救吗？(经济学人20170325)版权归原作者所有

背景介绍：这个周末是欧盟成立60周年的纪念日，英国首相梅姨不会去罗马参加庆祝活动，因为她已经正式启动了英国脱欧的程序。几天后，她将代表英国和欧盟进行脱欧的谈判和协商。

原文翻译如下 版权声明：文章版权归原杂志和作者所有。翻译仅为英语学习之用。谢绝任何转载及用于任何商业用途。

ON MARCH 25th 1957, with the shadow of the second world war still hanging over them, six European countries signed the founding treaty of a new sort of international club. The European Union, as the club came to be called, achieved success on a scale its founders could barely have imagined, not only underpinning peace on the continent but creating a single market as well as a single currency, and bringing into its fold ex-dictatorships to the south and ex-communist countries to the east, as it expanded from six members to 28. Yet even as today's European leaders gather in Rome this weekend to celebrate the 60th anniversary, they know their project is in big trouble.

翻译：1957年3月25日，二战的阴影还笼罩着他们，六个欧洲国家签署了一个新型国际俱乐部的成立协议。欧盟，是这个俱乐部的名字，它实现了创始国没有想象到的成果规模。不仅支撑着这个大陆的和平也创造了一个单一的市场和单独的流通货币，还把它队伍里的前独裁统治带到南方，把前communist统治到东方。与此同时，它的成员国扩由6个扩大到28个。然而，即使现在的欧盟领导这个周末聚集在罗马举行60周年庆祝活动，他们知道他们的项目存在着大问题。

The threats are both external and internal. Internally, the flaws that became glaringly evident in the euro crisis have yet to be fixed. Prolonged economic pain has contributed to a plunge in support for the EU. Populist, anti-European parties are attacking the EU’s very existence—not least in France, where Marine Le Pen is doing uncomfortably well in the presidential campaign, even if the National Front leader is unlikely to win in May. The most dramatic result of the anti-EU backlash so far is Brexit. Britain’s prime minister, Theresa May, will not be in Rome for the birthday party; on March 29th she plans to invoke Article 50 of the EU treaty to start the Brexit process. Negotiations over Britain’s departure will consume much time and energy for the next two years; losing such a big member is also a huge blow to the club’s influence and credibility.

翻译：这个威胁来自内部外部和内部。从内部来看，欧元危机中已经十分明显的缺陷还没有被解决。延长的经济阵痛已经使欧盟失去了一些支持。民粹主义，反欧盟的党派正在从各个方面攻击欧盟，特别是在法国。在那里，Marine Le Pen 在总统竞选中令人不爽地进展顺利，即使是国民阵线的领导也不太可能在五月胜出。最戏剧性反对欧盟的要属英国。英国首相特里莎梅将不会出席罗马的庆祝活动。3月29日，她将启动欧盟的第50条款开启英国的脱欧程序。接下来两年，对于英国脱欧的谈判将会花费大量的时间和精力。失去这么大的一个成员对于欧盟的影响力和可靠性也是一个巨大的打击。

The external pressures are equally serious. The refugee crisis has abated, but mainly thanks to a dodgy deal with Turkey. A newly aggressive Russia under Vladimir Putin and, in Donald Trump, an American president who is unenthusiastic about both the EU and NATO, make this a terrible time for Europe to be weak and divided. That a project set up to underpin Europe’s post-war security should falter at the very moment when that security is under threat is a bitter irony. It is also a reminder of how much is at stake if Europe fails to fix itself.

翻译：外在压力同样严重。难民危机有所缓和，但这主要是由于与土耳其签订了危险的协议。一个在普京领导下野心勃勃的俄罗斯，和一个在川普领导下对欧盟和北约都不热情的美国，在此情况下如果欧盟变得软弱和分裂情况会十分糟糕。一个为了保障欧洲战后安全的项目应该在安全遭受威胁的这一时刻暂缓，这真是辛辣的讽刺。这也是一个提醒：如果欧洲不能自我修复会是多大的风险。

Never-closer union

The traditional response of EU-enthusiasts to such challenges is to press for a bold leap towards closer union. The euro needs this if it is to succeed, they argue. Equally, they say, more powers ought to shift to the centre to allow the EU to strengthen its external borders and ensure that it speaks with one loud voice to the likes of Mr Putin and Mr Trump. Yet the evidence is that neither European voters nor their elected governments want this. If anything, public opinion favours the reverse.

翻译： 不会更亲近的联盟 对于这些挑战，欧盟支持者典型的回应是迫切要求一个更大胆的跳跃以形成更加紧密的联盟。他们认为，欧洲需要这个如果打算成功的话。同样，他们说，应该转移给欧盟更多的权利来加强欧盟的边界和确保当欧盟和像普京、川普这样的人对话时有足够的话语权。然而，现实是不管是欧洲选民还是他们选举出的政府都不想要这样。如果有什么不同的话，公众的观点更倾向于欧盟支持者的对立面。

If ever-closer union is not possible, another Brussels tradition is simply to muddle through. The euro crisis is past its worst, immigration has peaked and Brexit will be managed somehow. If, after this year’s elections, Emmanuel Macron is France’s president alongside either Angela Merkel or Martin Schulz as Germany’s chancellor, the club would be under staunchly pro-EU leadership. Yet muddling along has risks of its own. A renewed financial crisis that upset the euro again, or the election of another government committed to a referendum on EU or euro membership, could tear the union apart.

翻译：如果曾经更紧密的路面是不可能的话，另外一个布鲁塞尔传统仅仅是敷衍应付而已。欧元危机最严重的时刻已经过去了，移民问题现在空前严重，英国退欧也必须得认证处理。如果，今年的选举之后，Emmanuel Macron是法国总统，与此同时默克尔或者Martin Schulz是德国总理的话，这个联盟将是被坚定的亲欧盟派领导。然而，得过且过有自己的风险。再次困扰欧元的新一轮的经融危机，或者选举出承诺对欧盟或欧元区领导进行公投的政府，都可能把这个联盟拆解。

Is there a better alternative? The answer, as our special report argues, is to pursue, more formally than now, an EU that is far more flexible. In Euro-speak, this means embracing a “multi-tier” system, with the countries of a much wider Europe taking part to different degrees in its policies—and able to move from one tier to another with relative ease.

翻译：这里存在更换的替代方案吗？如我们的特别报告里指出的那样，答案是去追求，比现在更加正式地去追求，一个更加灵活欧盟。就欧洲而已，这意味着欣然接受一个“多层”系统，让更多的国家参与到不同程度的欧盟政治中，让他们能够比较容易地从一层移动到另外一层。

The great British break-off

There has recently been a flurry of interest in the notion of a “multi-speed” Europe. But what most EU leaders mean by the term is that core members should be able to pursue common policies in areas like defence, fiscal or welfare policy; it implies that all countries are moving towards the same destination. A broader, “multi-tier” Europe would find a place for non-members as well. The continent consists of 48 countries and 750m people, not just the 28 countries and 510m people in the union, still less the 19 and 340m in the euro.

翻译： 英国终止关系 最近人们对“多种-速度”的欧洲这个概念产生了一阵子的兴趣。但是对于这个词大多数欧盟领导认为是指核心成员国应该能够在国防、财政、福利等方面追求共同的政策。这暗示所有的国家朝着同一个方向前进。一个更广泛的，“多层”的欧盟应该也会为非成员国找到合适的位置。这个大陆由48个国家的7.5亿人民组成，不仅仅是在欧盟的那28个成员国和5.1亿人民，仍有少于19个国家和3.4亿欧洲人不在欧盟（译者：奇怪的数学）。

The core of Europe will be those countries that share the single currency. To solve the euro’s ills, they need more integration and shared institutions—from a proper banking union to a common debt instrument. The next tier would comprise a looser group than now of EU members that are not ready to accept the sacrifice of sovereignty needed to join the euro, which some will not do for many years, and may never.

翻译：欧盟核心成员国将是共享单一货币的国家。为了解决欧元的问题，他们需要更多综合的和共享的制度--从一个合理的银行联盟到一个共同的债务证券。下一层将由一个比现在的欧盟成员国更加松散的群体构成。他们现在不愿意为了加入欧盟而牺牲主权。一部分国家将在未来很多年都不愿意这么做，很多国家永远不会这么做。

Beyond that a multi-tier Europe should accommodate widely differing countries. That means a changed mindset more than changed treaties: in the language of Eurocrats, accepting a menu that is à la carte, not prix fixe. This is anathema in Brussels, where the idea that you can pick and choose the bits of the EU that you like is frowned upon, but it is what Europeans increasingly want. Countries like Norway or Switzerland may wish to be closely bound to the European single market. Others such as Britain may not be ready to accept the single market’s rules, but still wish to trade as freely as possible with the EU. They might seek a bigger role in other areas such as defence and security. And places like Turkey, the western Balkans, Ukraine and Georgia might prefer a similar associated status instead of today’s unsatisfactory situation, where they are told they are eligible to be full members but know they will never be allowed to join.

翻译：除此以外，一个多层欧洲应该广泛包容不同的国家。这意味着思维方式的转变而不仅是条款的改变。在布鲁塞尔，这是令人极其讨厌的。你可以挑选和选择接受欧盟中你喜欢的那一部分这一想法在那里是让人不悦的，但这正是欧洲人日益增长的要求。像挪威、瑞士这样的国家也许会希望和欧洲单一市场紧密结合。像英国这样的其他国家也许不愿意接受单一市场规则，但又希望尽可能自由地与欧盟进行贸易。他们也许会在国防和安全等领域寻求更大的角色。像土耳其、西巴尔干半岛、乌克兰、格鲁吉亚这些国家更希望有一个相似的紧密关系而不是今天这种令人不满意的情况。他们被告知具有成为完全成员国的资格，但他们知道他们将永远不被允许加入。

To work, a multi-tier Europe should be pragmatic about the rules that each tier entails. Those in the outer group might not accept fully free movement of people, for instance, but that is no reason to wall off their access to the EU's single market. Nor should there be a stigma of second-class status for those outside the core: after all, they include Denmark and Sweden, two of Europe's most successful countries. Ways should be found for countries with military or diplomatic clout (eg, post-Brexit Britain) to join in foreign and defence policies.

翻译：为了能够有效地运行，对于不同层应该遵守的规则，一个多层的欧洲应该变得更加务实和实际。例如，处于外层的国家可能不会完全接受人的自由流动，但是没有必要将他们隔离在欧洲的单一市场之外。也不应该把未能成为核心层的第二层身份当作一个耻辱，毕竟这一层包含了丹麦和瑞典这两个最成功的欧洲国家。应该找到办法能够让那些在军事或外交上具有影响力的国家（例如，脱欧后的英国）加入外交和国防政策。

For the European project to survive another 60 years, the key is flexibility, in both directions. Just as Britain is leaving the EU, another country might one day leave the euro. Any such step will be hard to manage. But if the union cannot embrace differentiation, it faces the risk of disintegration instead.

翻译：要想让欧盟项目再存在60年，关键在于灵活性，在其两个方面都是。就跟英国正在脱离欧盟一样，其他的国家可能有一天也会离开欧盟。任何这样的步骤都将会很难处理。但是，如果欧盟不能拥抱差异，取而代之的是它将面临的解散。

版权声明：文章版权归原杂志和作者所有。翻译仅为英语学习之用。谢绝任何转载及用于任何商业用途。 2017.03.26. NJ --完--