中英文带你速览中国经济头条。

Hi everyone. I’m Stephanie LI.

大家好，我是主持人李莹亮。

Coming up on today’s program.

重点提要 

China's GDP is expected to grow by 5.4% in 2023;

Chinese authorities will impose export controls on key materials for chipmaking next month.

中国经济要闻

China's GDP is expected to grow 5.4 percent in 2023, according to a report by the Bank of China Research Institute released on Monday.

The global services sector recovered steadily in the second quarter of this year and the trend will continue in the third quarter.

The contribution of domestic demand to economic growth has increased, and China's GDP grew by 4.5 percent in the first quarter and 6 percent in the second quarter. GDP is expected to grow by around 4.9 percent in the third quarter, according to the report.

Driven by pro-consumption policies and the accelerated release of service consumption, consumption is expected to maintain moderate recovery.

Infrastructure investment will continue to grow rapidly, investment in high-tech industries will support investment growth, and the real estate market is expected to gradually bottom out and recover.

As economic recovery continues, the banking sector is taking the initiative to increase support for the real economy and steadily increase the size of its assets and liabilities.

Bank industry's business development pays equal attention to quantity and efficiency, actively adapting to the downward trend of LPR, and the overall profit remains stable.

China's bank industry continued to strengthen the ability to cope with risks, and asset quality continued to improve.

The country's bank industry also strengthened the ability to replenish diversified capital and consolidate the foundation for risk prevention and control.

7月3日，中国银行研究院发布《2023年三季度经济金融展望报告》（以下简称《报告》），回顾了2023年上半年全球和中国经济金融运行以及全球银行业运行情况，展望了2023年下半年经济金融形势以及全球银行业发展趋势。

关于全球经济金融形势，《报告》认为，2023年二季度，全球经济下行势头有所放缓，主要经济体通胀持续回落，但复苏分化特征日益突出，全球服务业稳定复苏，制造业和商品贸易部门复苏较疲软。美欧央行继续加息，美元指数和美债收益率上行，跨境资本回流美国，全球股市区域分化明显。展望三季度，全球服务业和制造业复苏分化将持续，全球流动性持续收紧将对投融资、居民消费和经济增长带来较大影响。美欧加息周期即将迎来拐点，全球美元债券违约潮预计延续，能源市场仍存不确定性，股市或维持震荡格局。

关于中国经济金融形势，《报告》认为，2023年上半年,需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力逐步缓解，国内需求对经济增长的贡献提高，中国一季度GDP增长4.5%，好于市场预期，二季度预计GDP增长6%左右。展望下半年，在促消费政策、服务消费加快释放的带动下，消费有望保持温和修复，基建投资将继续较快增长，高技术产业投资对投资增长带来支撑，房地产市场有望逐步探底恢复。预计三季度GDP增长4.9%左右，全年增长5.4%左右。

关于全球银行业发展形势，《报告》认为，2023年三季度，全球金融体系不确定性依旧存在，银行业仍面临经营压力：信用风险和流动性风险突出；信贷需求乏力，贷款标准有所提高，减缓资产规模扩张速度；金融市场波动分化，资本补充遭遇一定阻碍；非息业务恢复效果欠佳，盈利总体有所下降。就中国而言，经济复苏持续，银行业主动作为，加大支持实体经济力度，稳步提升资产负债规模；业务发展量效并重，主动适应LPR下行趋势，整体盈利保持稳定；持续强化风险应对能力，资产质量延续向好态势；加强多元化资本补充能力，夯实风险防控基石。

区域观察

The sales area and supply of newly-built houses in Shanghai soared to the highest this year in June. Over 1 million square meters of new commercial houses were sold in Shanghai last month, up 40.6 percent from May, according to data from the local branch of market information provider Centaline Property  yesterday. The total area of houses on the market in the city soared 57.8 percent to more than 1.2 million sqm in the period. Meanwhile, the average housing price in the eastern Chinese megacity rose 2.2 percent to 64,593 yuan per sqm in June from the previous month.

6月上海新建住宅成交面积创年内新高：3日消息，据上海中原地产数据显示，6月上海新建商品住宅供应面积达123万平方米，环比增加57.8%，也是上半年供应面积最多的一次。从成交情况来看，6月上海新建商品住宅成交面积102.8万平方米，环比增加40.6%，成交面积创上半年新高。受结构性因素影响，6月均价为64593元/平方米，环比上涨2.2%。 

新使命，大未来

Business confidence in the Greater Bay Area has slid amid a slowdown in economic recovery, according to the latest survey conducted by Standard Chartered Hong Kong and Hong Kong Trade Development Council. The survey showed that the GBA Business Confidence Index softened to the 50 neutral mark in the second quarter after leaping to 51.3 in the first three months. However, the expectations index remained buoyant at 58.7, the second-highest reading in two years, pointing to expansion in the third quarter. The index for fixed-asset investment stood at 52.9, indicating a positive business outlook perceived by respondents in the area as they acknowledged the need to invest in capacity expansion.

大湾区企业信心预期指数至两年内次高：7月4日，渣打银行与香港贸易发展局公布2023年第二季“渣打大湾区营商景气指数” (GBAI)显示，第二季度的“营商信心”现状指数回落至50的中性水平，但“预期指数”达到58.7，仍保持在扩张区间，为近两年来的次高值。数据显示，各项子指数在第一季度全面上升后，本季度的表现开始出现差异。“固定资产投资”在各组成部分中得分最高，为52.9分，这表明受访者对大湾区商业前景保持乐观，承认有必要投资于产能扩张，以适应需求进一步正常化的预期。同时，第二季度信贷“预期指数”也保持扩张。渣打认为，这反映了区内企业对潜在增长的乐观预期，而预期和信贷指数均表明第三季度将进一步复苏。

Construction of five large liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with the world's largest single tank capacity of 270,000 cubic meters completed the main structure on Monday. Named Jinwan "Green Energy Port" in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province, the facility is the second phase of the largest natural gas storage and transportation base being built in the Greater Bay Area, according to China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC).  

5座全球最大LNG储罐落户大湾区：7月3日，中国海油对外宣布，随着5座全球单罐容量最大的27万立方米液化天然气储罐完成穹顶浇筑作业，金湾“绿能港”二期项目实现主体结构完工，向项目投产运营又迈出关键一步。该项目建成后，将大幅提升粤港澳大湾区和华南地区的天然气调峰保供能力。中国海油金湾“绿能港”位于广东省珠海市金湾区高栏港，一期项目于2013年投产，液化天然气年处理能力为350万吨，二期项目是国家石油天然气基础设施重点工程，采用的27万立方米全球最大LNG储罐。 

The Northbound Bond Connect recorded a total trading volume of 972.9 billion yuan in May, the highest since the mechanism that allows foreign investors to trade Chinese mainland bonds was launched in July 2017. The average daily turnover also soared to a record high of 46.3 billion yuan in May, according to the latest data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

“北向通”5月成交量创新高：7月3日，“债券通”“北向通”正式启动满6周年。最新数据显示，2023年5月，“北向通”成交9729亿元，月度日均成交量为463亿元，均创历史新高。截至5月末，“北向通”入市投资者达798家，较2017年末增加624家。

产业及公司新闻

Shares of leading Chinese gallium and germanium producers jumped today after China said it will start controlling the exports of the two key semiconductor raw materials from next month. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs said in a notice on Monday that gallium-related items, including gallium nitride, gallium arsenide, and indium gallium arsenide, and germanium-related products, such as zinc germanium phosphide, germanium epitaxial growth substrate, and germanium dioxide, can be exported only with special export licenses starting August 1, to safeguard national security and interests.  

两部门宣布锗、镓出口全面管制：7月3日，商务部、海关总署联合发布《关于对镓、锗相关物项实施出口管制的公告》，自2023年8月1日起正式实施。根据《公告》，实施出口管制涉及镓相关物项有：金属镓、氮化镓、氧化镓、磷化镓、砷化镓、铟镓砷、硒化镓、锑化镓。涉及锗相关物项有：金属锗、区熔锗锭、磷锗锌、锗外延生长衬底、二氧化锗、四氯化锗。7月4日，有色锗、镓相关板块走高，多家行业龙头开盘涨停。

China's centrally administered state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are ramping up investment in the first five months of the year, as their investment jumped 12.5 percent on a yearly basis to reach 1.7 trillion yuan. Among them, fixed-asset investment excluding that in the real estate sector stood at 1 trillion, up 20.4 percent year-on-year, latest data from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) of the State Council showed on Monday.

前5个月央企完成投资1.7万亿元：7月4日消息，国务院国资委最新数据显示，今年1至5月，中央企业完成投资1.7万亿元，同比增长12.5%。其中，固定资产投资（不含房地产）完成1万亿元，同比增长20.4%。 

Tesla said on Monday that it produced 479,700 vehicles and delivered 466,140 units in the second quarter this year, up 86 percent and 83 percent year-on-year respectively. The Model 3 and the Model Y combined accounted for the lion's share of the US electric car marker's deliveries in the quarter, totaling 446,915 units. Separately, Telsa announced that two flagship EVs will be discounted by between 35,000 and 45,000 yuan in China for the first time as it sticks to prioritizing sales growth over profits. From July 1, Model S and Model X are priced at 773,900 and 863,900 yuan each.

特斯拉二季度全球交付超46.6万辆：美国电动汽车制造商特斯拉公司当地时间2日发布的2023年第二季度电动汽车生产及交付报告显示，该季度特斯拉共交付超46.6万辆电动汽车，创下公司单季度交付量新高。报告显示，今年第二季度特斯拉电动汽车总产量为479700辆，较去年同期增长约86%；总交付量为466140辆，较去年同期增长约83%。此外，特斯拉7月1日宣布，用户只需购买现车的全新Model S/X两款车型，就能享受3.5万元至4.5万元的优惠。计入优惠福利后，Model S 双电机全轮驱动版77.39万元起售、Model S Plaid三电机全轮驱动版98.89万元起售；Model X 双电机全轮驱动版现车价86.39万元起、Model X Plaid 三电机全轮驱动版现车价101.39万元起。

金融市场消息

Major banks in China have lowered their US dollar deposit rates for the second time in a month, several banking sources with direct knowledge of the matter said, as authorities have stepped up efforts to arrest a slide in the yuan. Interest rates offered by multiple lenders including state-owned banks on most dollar deposits are now capped at 2.8 percent, down from 4.3 percent previously for large deposits, insiders said.

多行下调美元存款利率到2.8%：7月3日，媒体从多家主要银行处了解到，当天多家银行网点纷纷下调了境内美元存款产品的利率报价，从最高4.3%降低至2.8%，原本5万美元以上、年利率4.3%的产品已被取消。

Ruizhong Life Insurance has been given the regulatory green light to start business, taking over Huaxia Life Insurance, a troubled insurer seized by Chinese financial regulators in 2020, and becoming the country's largest insurer. Ruizhong Life has a registered capital of 56.5 billion yuan, with Beijing-based equity investment fund partnership Jiuzhou Qihang Fund owning 60 percent and China Insurance Security Fund the rest, a document from the National Administration of Financial Regulation showed yesterday. 

瑞众人寿开业获批：7月3日下午，金融监管总局官网公布批文，已于6月28日批复同意瑞众人寿保险有限责任公司开业，并接受北京银保监局的属地监督管理。瑞众人寿注册资本达到565亿元，一举成为中国寿险业注册资本第一高。根据批文，瑞众人寿有两大股东。其中，九州启航（北京）股权投资基金（有限合伙）出资339亿元，持股比例60%；中国保险保障基金有限责任公司出资226亿元，持股比例40%。

股市收盘情况

Chinese stocks continued to rise on Tuesday on economic stimulus hopes. The benchmark Shanghai Composite edged up 0.04 percent, while the Shenzhen Component gained 0.4 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index also climbed 0.6 percent and the TECH index added 0.5 percent.

A股港股继续上扬：周二A股大盘窄幅震荡，三大指数均小幅上涨。截至收盘，沪指涨0.04%，深成指涨0.35%，创业板指涨0.2%。沪深两市今日成交额9293亿，较上个交易日缩量858亿。北向资金全天净卖出19.5亿元。港股全天震荡走强，恒指收涨0.57%，恒生科技指数收涨0.5%。

Biz Word of the Day

财经词汇划重点

Both gallium and germanium are key in the making of semiconductors and other electronics. Gallium nitride is one of the most used third-generation semiconductor materials in the fifth-generation base station, new energy vehicle charging pile, and consumer electronics fields. It has high-frequency, high-efficiency, and high-power capabilities. Germanium is another excellent semiconductor, mostly used in fields such as semiconductors, aerospace measurement and control, nuclear physics detectors, fiber-optic communication, infrared optics, solar cells, chemical catalysts, and biomedicine.

镓有“电子工业脊梁”之称，在半导体行业和太阳能电池行业得到广泛应用，目前需求正不断增加。金属镓可用于气体传感器、太阳能电池、稀土永磁材料，以及砷化镓、氮化镓等化合物半导体。锗是天然的优良半导体，广泛应用于半导体、光纤通讯、红外光学、太阳能电池、化学催化剂、生物医学等领域。

Executive Editor: Sonia YU

Editor: LI Yanxia

Host: Stephanie LI

Writer: Stephanie LI 

Sound Editor: Stephanie LI

Graphic Designer: ZHENG Wenjing, LIAO Yuanni

Produced by 21st Century Business Herald Dept. of Overseas News.

Presented by SFC

编委:  于晓娜

策划、编辑：李艳霞 

播音：李莹亮

撰稿：李莹亮

音频制作：李莹亮

设计：郑文静、廖苑妮

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（作者：李莹亮 编辑：李艳霞,和佳）

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