美国商务部周四宣布，第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）——衡量商品和服务价格的广义指标——按年率计算下降0.9%，而前三个月按年率计算下降1.6%。在拜登政府准备迎接艰难的中期选举季之际，这一坏消息将对其造成重大打击。白宫官员试图平息经济衰退的言论，称经济的许多部分仍然强劲。

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The growth rate stands in marked contrast to the robust 6.9% annual increase in GDP recorded in the final quarter of 2021 when the economy roared back from Covid shutdowns. The fast pace of growth contributed to soaring inflation – now running at 40-year highs – and the Federal Reserve’s decision to sharply increase interest rates in order to bring down prices. The changing economic environment was reflected in the GDP report. Consumer spending – the largest driver of the economy – slowed over the quarter but remained positive, rising 1% on an annual basis. Residential fixed investment, or home construction, dropped 14% on an annual basis and slowing business inventories, goods produced but not yet sold by businesses, dragged down the GDP number.

增长率与2021年最后一个季度强劲的6.9%增长形成了鲜明的对比，当时经济从疫情封控中恢复过来。快速增长导致通胀飙升——目前处于40年来的高位——以及美联储大幅提高利率以便降低物价的决定。经济环境的变化反映在GDP报告中。消费支出——经济的最大驱动力——在本季度有所放缓，但仍保持正增长，同比增长1%。住宅固定投资（即住房建设）同比下降14%，放慢的企业库存，也就是企业生产但尚未售出的商品拉低了GDP数据。

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Two quarters of negative GDP growth are widely regarded as a signal that the economy has gone into recession. But the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter of when recessions begin and end. While the GDP figures will play into the NBER’s final verdict, it also looks at a wider range of economic factors, including the jobs market, and is unlikely to give its decision soon.

两个季度的GDP负增长被广泛认为是经济进入衰退的信号。但美国国家经济研究局（NBER）是衰退何时开始和结束的官方仲裁者。尽管GDP数据将影响美国国家经济研究局（NBER）的最终裁决，但它也考虑了包括就业市场在内的更广泛的经济因素，因此不太可能很快做出决定。

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文本选自：The Guardian（卫报）

作者：Dominic Rushe

原文发布时间：28 Jul. 2022

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